--->

News

November 2023 Rapid City Economic Indicators

Published Thursday, January 11, 2024 10:00 am
by Tom Johnson



Had you been sitting by the fire this week in 1976 and turned on the radio while enjoying some hot chocolate (or peppermint schnapps), you would have noticed a peculiar song making its way to the airwaves. The song was slow and fast, part rock ballad and part rock opera, with lyrics philosophically profound and meaningless all at once, like a surreal dream. 

The song also had an esoteric and hippie title, "Bohemian Rhapsody," which was really an invitation for dismissal. How would you have known the song, written by Freddie Mercury and performed by the rock band Queen, would eventually be known as the godfather of the progressive rock movement, make its way to #1 twice decades later, and be featured in a famous scene from the hit movie Wayne’s World, finally to be voted as the greatest song of all time?

Mercury preferred listeners to make up their own meanings for the song's strange lyrics. The real meaning, however, was probably much more personal. My own favorite lyric: "I see a little silhouetto of a man, Scaramouche, Scaramouche, will you do the Fandango?" There, I reached my "Fandango" quota for the year.

This month's indicators are a lot like that: dancing around the room to the sound of guitars, castanets, and tambourines, celebrating a robust and strong local economy.

  • Wages: up.
  • Building and housing permits: up.
  • Construction valuation: at record levels.
  • Airport passengers and hotel occupancy: better than a year ago.
  • Vacancy rates: very low by national and regional standards.

The only real negatives from these indicators would be the still-high housing costs. Still, even that news is blunted by the fact that wages have risen by 10.43% in the last twelve months, while housing costs have risen much less quickly and, in some cases (depending on the zip code), have dropped in the same period. Take, for instance, the 57701 zip code, where housing costs have decreased by 13% since a year ago.

Last month, we noted that the Fed needed to begin cutting rates, so we didn't put a kink in this continued growth and good news. We still feel that way. And almost on cue, recently the Fed said they were anticipating three rate cuts in 2024.

Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy?

It's real, my friends. These rate cuts are real. And no matter what happens at the beginning of the new year, we think these rate cuts will push things in the right direction.

Stay safe and God-speed.

Tom